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Kelly System



The Kelly system is a bankroll management strategy that tells about the betting amount on a match regarding the winning probabilities. The Kelly system give you the maximum winnings from the value bet without risking all your bankroll. The betting amounts given by the Kelly System are usualy too high and should be practised from betting experts. Here a expamle how the Kelly System works:

A bookmaker gives the following odds for a match:

1: 2.0 - X: 3.0 - 2: 3.2

We think the percentage for a homewin is about 60%. This means that a value bet exist, because the bookmaker estimates the home home win has about 50%. Support our bankroll is about 1000€. Regarding the Kelly System we have:

1000x(0,60x2,0-1)/(2,00-1) = 200€ to bet.

We see that we must to bet 20% of our bankroll. This is in practise high, we should bet only about 5% of our bankroll. This Kelly System is the Full Kelly System. In practise most of the time is used the fractional Kelly System. This means that only 20-50% of the betting amount from Kelly System calculations we have to bet. So we guarantee that we avoid a lose of your whole bankroll when we get unlucky. The Kelly System is related from the bankroll, odds and the percentage of the value betting.


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